First, Happy Chinese New Year to all,
Rich at All Roads Lead to China gives a stat that is my reason for not worrying about any present bubble in the Chinese property market. He notes that China is 52% urban. The U.S. is about 97% urban. That is a big gap.
China will track this way with the U.S. Where are all those people going to live in the cities? Chinese housing prices did go down this year, but it was not for lack of real demand. Housing prices went down because the Chinese government put the brakes on banking credit and second house buyers. They also used a host of other measures to slow down the market. The government succeeded.
Now is a good time to buy. The price may yet get pinched by the government, but 500 Million people need a place to live and work in the cities of China, and that is no bubble. Those are real people. They will come. Also, the Chinese stock market is dicey and the financial market is immature, so everyone will keep investing in real estate. You should to.
In business, buying land for your factory or office can be smart as the value of that land will go up. You also can borrow against it inside China. Bet on 500 million people, and you have a high chance of succeeding.
Any other thoughts?